m.05 · II · Choose strategic moves · Strategic Innovation

Disruption from Below

Christensen · sustaining vs disruptive · the trajectory that catches incumbents flat-footed.

The core idea

Innovation is not one curve but two. Incumbents ride the sustaining trajectory — each generation makes an established product better along the dimensions current customers already value, and they overshoot what most buyers actually need. A disruptive trajectory starts elsewhere: a simpler, cheaper, lower-performing offer that serves a fringe or non-consumer the incumbent rationally ignores. The disruptor improves on its own slope, and when its trajectory crosses the threshold of customer-acceptable performance the mainstream switches — quickly, and on a different basis of competition. The incumbent's strength on the old curve is precisely what makes the new one invisible until it is too late. — after Christensen

Put simply · The camera that arrived from nowhere.

In 2000, film cameras kept getting better — more megapixels, faster film, better lenses. They overshot what most photographers actually needed. Meanwhile, camera phones arrived: blurry, slow, not serious. Film companies ignored them.

The phone camera did not compete with professional film. It served the billions of people who just wanted a quick photo with no fuss. It improved on its own slope — cheap, convenient, always in your pocket.

By 2010, the crossing point had passed. Most people did not need film-camera quality. They needed camera-phone convenience. The incumbent's strength — precision optics and chemical film — was exactly what made the threat invisible until it was too late.

The hero diagram

Two trajectories, one threshold

Performance rises over time on both curves. The dashed line is what mainstream customers will accept. The disruptor starts below that line and crosses it — that crossing is the moment incumbents lose.

Frameworks in this module

Named ideas to remember.

Sustaining vs Disruptive Innovation · Christensen · The Innovator's Dilemma 1997

Sustaining trajectory: better along existing dimensions · Disruptive trajectory: simpler, cheaper, lower-performing to start · Crossing point: disruptor meets mainstream threshold

Watch the trajectory, not the current performance gap. Disruption happens when the two curves cross.

Performance Overshoot · after Christensen

Incumbent keeps improving beyond what most buyers need · Price premium grows · Fringe and non-consumers become viable targets for disruptors

If your product is better than most customers need, you are vulnerable from below.

How to apply

To stress-test your position against disruption.

Map the sustaining trajectory for your industry. What performance dimension have incumbents been improving? How far past customer need have they gone?
Name the non-consumer or fringe segment. Who is too price-sensitive or too low-need to use the current offer? That is the disruptor's landing zone.
Identify the disruptive candidate. What simpler, cheaper alternative exists today that incumbent customers would currently reject?
Project the crossing point. At what pace is the disruptive offer improving? When does it cross the customer-acceptable threshold?
Decide: ignore, acquire, or create a separate unit? Incumbents rarely win disruptions by improving the main product. Separation is often the only answer.

Key reading · LBS Case CS-24-002

Dubai Air Taxi.

The eVTOL case illustrates both curves in motion: helicopters represent the sustaining trajectory (expensive, premium, urban elite), while electric air taxis aim at a mass-market fringe that could not afford helicopter rides. The case tests whether the disruptive trajectory will cross the performance threshold before incumbents can respond.

The crossing point is not visible until it has already happened to most incumbents. Track the trajectory early.

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