Ebrahim AlhamedFrameworks Library

m.09 · II · Influence & Lead · Making Great Decisions

System 1 / System 2 & the Bias Audit

Kahneman · Bazerman · Tversky — the decision-making lineup.

Every decision you make is either fast (System 1 — automatic, associative, usually fine) or slow (System 2 — deliberate, effortful, used only when pushed). The trouble is that System 1 produces predictable biases — framing, anchoring, availability, representativeness — and System 2 is often too tired to catch them. The fix is not to think harder; it is to engineer the decision. — after Kahneman, Tversky & Bazerman

Prospect theory.

Losses feel steeper than gains. The kink at the origin is the whole point.

Asymmetric S-curve S-shaped value function showing losses on the left and gains on the right; losses loom larger than equivalent gains (loss aversion). pain pleasure losses gains felt value

Named ideas to remember.

System 1 vs System 2 · Kahneman
S1: fast, automatic, intuitive · S2: slow, deliberate, analytical
Most decisions are S1. Reserve S2 for the ones that will matter in a year.
Bazerman 6 Rational Steps · Bazerman
Define · Criteria · Weight criteria · Options · Rate · Compute
A structured decision beats a brilliant one more often than not.
Motivational Biases · Kahneman
Positive illusions · Escalation of commitment (sunk cost)
You over-rate your own work and under-quit what is failing.
Cognitive Biases · Tversky & Kahneman
Framing · Availability · Anchoring · Representativeness
The frame decides more than the data. Name the frame before the decision.
Prospect Theory · Kahneman & Tversky
loss aversion ≈ 2× · diminishing sensitivity · reference-dependence
Losses hurt more than gains please. Design with that in mind.

Before the next big decision.

  1. Is this a System 1 or System 2 decision? If it will matter in a year, force yourself into System 2.
  2. Write down the frame. "Gain" frames and "loss" frames lead to different choices on identical facts.
  3. Check your two biggest biases. Anchoring (first number you heard) and availability (most recent memorable example).
  4. Ask: what would make me reverse this in 6 months? If you can answer, you are not escalating. If you cannot, you are.

Key reading · Thinking, Fast and Slow · Kahneman

Two systems, one mind.

Kahneman's synthesis of 40 years of research names the two modes — and names the biases each produces. It is still the best field manual on why smart people make predictably bad decisions under pressure.

Rationality is not the goal. Catching yourself being irrational is.

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